The history of the Great Plains is interwoven with the cycle of drought and deluge.

Climate change is likely to induce even larger scale dynamic changes in drought and precipitation patterns, shifts in plant communities, and exacerbated human land use practices.

The critical bird habitat in the Great Plains is already among the most threatened landscapes in North America. Grassland birds are suffering the steepest and most consistent decline of bird assemblages on the continent.

Climate change is expected to alter habitat types, climate regimes and other factors that influence the survival of species and health of populations in these landscapes. In order to protect and preserve these critical lands and the birds that use them as habitat, the Conservancy has identified sites for conservation action based on the level of threat to each site.

How can climate compound risks to birds?

Scientists predict that climate change will effect a gradient of drier conditions in the southwestern Plains and more permanent moisture in the northeastern Plains. Changes in moisture regimes and temperatures may cause radical disruptions in insect populations, which are the primary food source for many bird species -- particularly those in migration or with young to feed.

The decoupling of food resource availability from the times when birds need them may be a major contributing factor to future population declines. The Conservancy's Migratory Bird program is working to protect these birds by learning about the conditions of this habitat and the future of this vast and critical landscape.

The Conservancy in Action

The Migratory Bird Program is examining the direct impacts of climate change and associated changes in land use on habitat suitability for birds of the Great Plains. Birds of high conservation concern are the primary focal targets of this analysis.

The Conservancy's Migratory Birds program is working to:

• Model ecosystem dynamics with data from the average of several climate models under three future emission scenarios. These models will provide probabilistic forecasts of near-term (50 years) climate variables including temperature, precipitation, variability and model agreement. These data provide insights into the impacts future climate scenarios may have on grassland ecosystems.
• Evaluate risks from a landscape level perspective. To do this, Conservancy scientists first identify priority conservation areas where significant change is expected. Then, they assess how those changes may lead to increases or decreases in habitat availability for birds.

In order to establish the conservation value of each site, scientists must identify habitats that are predicted to expand for some species, shrink for others, and determine individual species that are at particularly high risk of local or regional extirpation.

Then, conservationists identify those areas that are most likely to maintain their habitats and ecological functions. These resilient areas are high value/low risk candidates for future conservation investments, since they are more likely to be stable over time and reduce the severity of climate change impacts on birds.

This research will ensure the conservation of those sites with the greatest potential to minimize impacts or provide refuge for priority birds while making the most of bird funding.

Find out how The Nature Conservancy is working to protect migratory birds:

• Conserve the grassland birds of the Great Plains of North America
• Identify and protect a network of high-quality migration stopover habitats around the Gulf of Mexico
• Conserve migratory birds on the Pacific Coast of North America
• Examine the wintering ecology and habitat requirements of Kirtland's Warbler
• Study the Cerulean Warbler, one of the fastest declining species of migratory bird
• Delve into the Pine-Oak Forests of Central America to conserve this critical habitat for birds
• Investigate bird migration across the United States using Doppler weather radar

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Photos: Common Loon. Photo © J. J. Guy Longtin; Royal Tern, Morro Strand State Beach, California, USA. Photo © Mike Baird (Creative Commons).